Where is the economy headed?

The Economic Leading Statistics® index (ELS) is a proprietary index produced by Saratoga.  The purpose of the index is to signal, generally speaking, whether the US economy is expanding or contracting. 

ELS includes ten underlying metrics, such as Housing Starts, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Saratoga’s own Consumption Modification Index® (CMI), readings from a number of United States’ debt instruments, and monetary policy figures. 

ELS has historically provided a reliable indication of where U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is headed.  When combined with Saratoga’s additional proprietary indices, ELS may help us to understand if we are transitioning from a recession to an expansion or vice-versa.

Open the dedicated ELS factsheet to read our interpretation regarding each of the underlying metrics that goes into the index.  In addition, the ELS factsheet contains a chart that tracks the index' rate of change against US GDP growth